Quick answer
An email list of 8,000 converting at 2.5% produces 200 buyers; at $299 that is $59,800 gross, and $52,265 after a 5% refund rate, 5% platform fees and payment processing. List size and conversion rate matter equally — doubling either one doubles the launch.
How the Course Launch Revenue works, step by step
Enter your audience size (email list is the reliable input; social followers convert at a fraction of email rates), expected conversion rate, course price, refund rate, platform fee percentage and the share of kept sales going to affiliates. The calculator returns buyers, gross revenue, each deduction, and net revenue — plus net revenue per subscriber and per buyer.
Deductions apply in order. Refunds come off gross first, because refunded sales never reach you. Platform fees, payment processing and affiliate commissions then apply to kept sales only. Processing is 2.9% of kept sales plus $0.30 per kept buyer, which is why a launch with many low-priced buyers pays proportionally more in processing than one with fewer high-priced buyers. At the defaults — 8,000 subscribers, 2.5% conversion, a $299 price and a 5% refund rate — kept sales are $56,810 of the $59,800 gross.
Conversion benchmarks: a warm email list typically converts at 1 to 3% for a mid-priced course during a launch window; cold traffic converts well under 1%. Webinar launches convert attendees at higher rates (10 to 25% of live attendees is common) but attendees are a small subset of the list. If you have run a launch before, your own last conversion rate beats any benchmark — enter it.
Payment plans change the timing, not the total: a 3-payment plan usually raises conversion but spreads cash across months and adds failed-payment losses. Offering instalments commonly lifts conversion by 20 to 40% for courses above about $200, while 5 to 15% of instalment payments typically fail or default before completion. Model the plan by lowering net revenue slightly rather than counting full price on day one.
The affiliates view matters for larger launches: partners commonly take 30 to 50% of the sale price. Revenue through affiliates is still profitable when the course margin is high, but the calculator separates affiliate commissions so the fee cost is visible. On a $50,000-plus launch, the affiliate line is often larger than refunds and processing combined.
The formula
Buyers = audience x conversion rate. Gross revenue = buyers x price. Net revenue = (gross - refunds) - platform fees - processing - affiliate commissions, where processing = 2.9% of kept sales + $0.30 per kept buyer.
Worked example — try it on the calculator above
Worked example: 8,000-subscriber list, $299 course
At a 2.5% conversion rate, buyers = 8,000 x 2.5% = 200. Gross revenue = 200 x $299 = $59,800. Refunds at 5% remove $2,990, leaving kept sales of $56,810. Platform fees at 5% remove $2,840.50. Processing is 2.9% of $56,810 ($1,647.49) plus $0.30 for each of the 190 kept buyers ($57), totalling $1,704.49. Net launch revenue = $52,265.01 — $6.53 per subscriber and $261.33 per buyer. If affiliates drove sales worth 10% of kept revenue, subtract a further $5,681 and the launch nets $46,584. Raising conversion to 3.5% would produce 280 buyers and $73,171 of net revenue — a 40% increase from one point of conversion, which is why list quality beats list size.
Frequently Asked Questions
What conversion rate should I expect from a course launch?
For an email list and a course priced $100 to $500, 1 to 3% of the list buying at launch is a realistic planning range; creators with practised sequences reach 3 to 5%. Webinar launches convert attendees at higher rates (10 to 25% of live attendees is common) but attendees are a small subset of the list. Never plan a first launch above 2% without evidence from your own audience.
What refund rate is normal for online courses?
Around 5% is a workable planning figure for courses sold with a money-back guarantee; high-ticket courses sold with aggressive marketing can see 10 to 15%. Refund rates fall when the first module delivers a quick result and when the guarantee conditions are clear. Every point of refunds on a $100,000 launch is $1,000 — worth modelling, not ignoring.
How big an audience do I need for a $10,000 launch?
At a 2% conversion rate: $10,000 needs 50 buyers at $200, which means a list of 2,500; at $500 per course, 20 buyers from a list of 1,000. At a 1% conversion rate, double those list sizes. This arithmetic is why creators grow the list before building the course — the audience size decides the launch more than the content does.
Do payment plans increase total revenue?
Usually, for courses above about $200: offering instalments commonly lifts conversion by 20 to 40%. Offsetting that, 5 to 15% of instalment payments typically fail or default before completion. Net effect is positive for most sellers, but cash arrives over months — do not spend launch-week projections that depend on month-three instalments.
Estimates, not advice. This calculator provides educational estimates based on the inputs you enter and the assumptions shown on this page. It is not financial, tax or investment advice, and it cannot see your full situation. Verify important figures against official sources, and consider a qualified professional for decisions about your own money. See our Disclaimer and Methodology.